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    12 Nov 2016

    Over 90 Million Eligible Voters Didn’t Vote in 2016

    Over 231 million Americans are eligible to vote, but, based on early results from the 2016 Presidential election, but just over 130 million of them voted for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. In some of the key battleground states that decided the election, less than a few thousand votes decided the result, proving how important every vote really is and how important it is to motivate your party. As more numbers come in, this post will continue to be updated.
    As of Friday, projections from the United States Elections Project show that there were 231,556,622 Americans eligible to vote, but 133,331,500 voted. That means that 42.4 percent didn’t vote, while 57.6 percent did. The voter turnout will likely increase as the popular vote continues to be counted.
    Voting Eligible Population Ballots*Voter Eligible Population That Didn’t VoteVoter Eligible Population Total
    133,331,500 (57.6 percent)98,225,122 (42.4 percent)231,556,622
    This number is not the same number as registered voters. Politico reported in October 2016 that the data firm TargetSmart calculated that there were 200 million people registered to vote, an increase from 146.3 million registered to vote in 2008. Eleven states also allowed same-day voter registration.
    The Elections Project notes that there were 251,107,404 people who classify as members of the voting-age population, therefore 117,775,904 of the voting-age population (or 46.9 percent) did not vote. (The U.S. Census bureau estimates that there are 326.9 million people living in the U.S.) This is different from the voting-eligible population because there are over 3.2 million people ineligible to vote as felons. The Sentencing Project estimates that 2.5 percent of the U.S. voting-age population cannot vote because of a felony record.
    The number of eligible voters who turned out in 2016 was a slight increase in eligible voter turnout from 2012. FEC data from that election shows that 54.87 percent of the voting-age population cast a vote for president, or 129,085,410 of the 235,248,000 voting age population cast a vote. However, 2016 was still far from the high reached in 2008, when 58.23 percent of the voting-age population participated. In 2008, 131,313,820 total votes were cast.
    The number of voters might have been up nationally, but if everyone registered to vote really did cast a vote, the results would might have been different. Based on data from The Associated Press and the New York Times, Clinton received 60.07 million votes, or 47.7 percent of the total popular vote. Trump received 59.79 million votes, or 47.5 percent.
    Here’s the popular vote chart, based on projections from the New York Times.
    CandidateVote TotalPercentage
    Hillary Clinton60,839,49747.8
    Donald Trump60,265,84747.3

    Turnout
    2012 Obama: 65.9m
    2016 Clinton: 59.1m = -6.8m
    2012 Romney: 60.9m
    2016 Trump: 59m = -1.9m

    You tell me what happened

    Although Clinton did receive more votes overall, Trump’s razor-thin victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania gave him the electoral vote lead needed to win the presidency.



    A quick look at turnout data: It seems 2016 was nothing special for the Rep-candidate. It's the Dem-candidate that didn't get the vote out.

    As the above chart shows, Clinton’s real weakness was her inability to motivate the Democratic base like her predecessor. Although Trump’s Republican votes aren’t significantly less or more than Mitt Romney’s in 2012 and John McCain’s in 2008, Clinton is far behind Obama’s 2008 and 2012 levels.

    Trump carried WI, MI and PA by combined 107K votes. Clinton carried DaKalb County, GA by 190K votes.

    Clinton’s failure in this aspect can be found by looking at the results in Midwest cities. While she won Wayne County, Michigan, which includes Detroit, she only received 517,000 votes. In 2012, Obama won that county with 595,253 votes. Obama went on to win Michigan, but Clinton lost the state to Trump.
    Clinton also lost Wisconsin, a state that instituted a controversial voter ID law between the 2012 and 2016 elections. While Clinton won Milwaukee County, the margin of victory was not at Obama’s level. There, Obama won with 328,090 votes, compared to Clinton’s 288,986.
    Wisconsin Turn-Out*
    Voting Eligible Population BallotsVoter Eligible Population That Didn’t VoteVoter Eligible Population Total
    2,935,000 (68.4 percent)1,360,057 (31.6 percent)4,295,057
    *based on statistics from the United States Elections Project

    Michigan Turn-Out*
    Voting Eligible Population BallotsVoter Eligible Population That Didn’t VoteVoter Eligible Population Total
    4,800,0002,631,5897,431,589
    *based on statistics from the United States Elections Project

    New Hampshire Turn-Out*
    Voting Eligible Population BallotsVoter Eligible Population That Didn’t VoteVoter Eligible Population Total
    732,000309,1471,041,147
    *based on statistics from the United States Elections Project
    Another state with a very thin margin is New Hampshire, which still hasn’t been completely called. Clinton is ahead with 348,126 votes and Trump has 345,598 votes.



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    Clinton underperformed Obama in key counties with heavy black population. Was whole margin in Wisconsin and Michigan

    In Michigan, the difference between Trump and Clinton is just 11,837 votes. (Gary Johnson earned 173,021 votes.) In Wisconsin, the difference between Trump and Clinton was just 27,257 votes. If she got the same number of votes Obama received in Milwaukee County alone, she would have made up the difference.
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